Sony Open Wrap Up and Optimal Lineup Analysis
Considering how many touts had Russell Henley outright tickets, no one was happier than the books seeing Matsuyama steal the win with his tap in eagle on the first playoff hole. It looked all but sealed up after Henley made eagle on 9 following 3 consecutive birdies leaving him 5 shots clear with 9 holes to go. From here Russell shot 1 over including failing to birdie the 18th hole from 10 feet to win the Sony Open for the second time. Instead, Matsuyama went 4 under including a tap in birdie on 18 to force a playoff and replay number 18. Russell again hit his tee shot into the fairway bunker while Matsuyama hit his into the middle of the fairway. After Henley was forced to layup, Matsuyama hit as good a 3-wood as you will ever see to 3 feet and give him his 9th victory on Tour and 2nd in the last 3 months.
HOW DID WE DO?
Webb Simpson: 16–1
Finished T-61 and never looked to have his game in control. Disappointing.
Marc Leishman: 18–1
While Leishman made the cut and finished T36, never contended as different parts of his game failed throughout the week.
Kevin Kisner: 33–1
A solid T3 finish would have earned us each-way places if we were using an offshore book, unfortunately that’s not the case and the bet brings nothing to our slowly emptying bank account. Had Kisner’s First round 68 matched his Final round 64, he would have been in the playoff with Matsuyama and Henley.
While we didn’t cash any tickets with these bets, we were able to make a solid profit on Draftkings. We built 52 lineups that were all used in the $5 Drive the Green GPP and luckily for us, we happen to place our best lineup in all of the Single Entry GPPs we entered. In a week where roughly only 10% of lineups were able to get 6/6 through the cut, having one get through in the Single Entry GPPs will likely get your lineup to cash. Russell Henley did not bring home the victory for us but he was still able to score the most Draftking Points by having so many birdies and eagles throughout the week.
In the Draftkings Preview article last week, I stated the following parameters for line up construction based on 4 year trends:
- Line up will leave between 700–2500
- At least 2 players who played the TOC in the week prior.
- Use only one player from the 10k tier.
- Do not roster any player who has never played the Sony Open.
Looking at this year’s optimal line up, all four of these parameters were met again! It has been my contention that so long as there are strong and specific trends that have occurred in the previous 4 years, we will build in the hopes that it happens again. We also improved by having three of the optimal players in this build so that goes a long way in making a solid core for line ups. Another trend to keep track of in building is that for both tournaments so far this year, the optimal lineup used the lowest owned 10k+ player and used the highest owned player in the 8k section. I’m not going to build every line up based on this specific parameter but I will definitely include it with some allocation of our line ups next week at the American Express Championship.
Draftkings Bankroll Update:
Bovada Bankroll Update:
