Sony Open Draftkings Strategy and Lineup Optimization

Optimal Lineups

Before we dive into our player pool for the Sony Open, let’s first take a look at the Optimal Builds of the last four years.

All of the players highlighted in blue are those who played the weak prior at the TOC. The stars by the names indicate the actual winner of the event and the green is the amount of salary left over. Right away we see that all four builds left a significant amount of money on the table. While it’s always recommended to leave some salary left over to increase your chance of having a unique lineup, leaving this much usually means you are giving up quite a bit of value. Here are the trends we see:

· All four Lineups had a 10k+ player even though none of them actually won the event.

· All four Lineups had at least 2 players who played the TOC in the week prior.

· None of the Lineups rostered a debutante.

· Of the 24 players in the 4 Lineups, 16 came from the 7K section.

While a predominant amount of my lineups will follow all of these rules, I believe Draftkings pricing has gotten better at identifying the players’ talent and in doing so, shifted players in the mid-high 7k into the 8k tier. I intend to leave between 700–2500 of salary left over on all of my Lineups while using only a single 10K player in each. I have omitted all first-timers from my player pool and will keep 90% Lineups rostering 2–3 players from the TOC field. So long as the prior optimal builds present strong trends, we will build accordingly in the hopes the trend continues.

10k+

After Bryson withdrew early in the week, there is a case to be made for why each of the 5 players here could play well. The weakest case to me is Matsuyama since he’s now played this event 8 times and yes yet to crack a Top 10. While this course seems to set up perfectly for Sunjae Im, he’s consistently played worse as he’s gone 12–21–53. While Cam Smith has already won here and is just coming off a victory last week at Kapalua, it still seems a tall ask for the rising Australian Star to pull off back to back victories. To me it’s a toss-up between the top 15 machine Webb Simpson (13th or better for 6 straight years), and the trending in the right direction Mark Leishman. Stats be damned, I’m going to say that watching his fellow Aussie Cam Smith win last week inspires Leishman to come out ahead.

9k

Since the last four Optimal Builds didn’t use anyone from this tier, I’m going to minimize my exposure to any of them but just using some of Cory Conners and Talor Gooch. Both have had solid Fall Seasons but the best case can be made for Cory Conners. Conners has been anything but a good putter yet has gained strokes putting at Waialae in all 3 years player here. If he can continue this trend with his immaculate ball-striking, Connors has a great chance to become a two-time winner on tour.

8K

Kevin Kisner is easily my favorite play here after a great 8th place finish at a course that does not usually suit him well at Kapalua. Kevin has 3 top 5’s here at Sony and is at a stage in his life where knows there are few spots on Tour where his lack of length are not a hindrance like it is at Waialae. After his Alma mater Georgia Bulldogs claimed the College Football National Championship on Monday, I’m counting on some inspired play to continue this week. The safest pick on the entire slate has to be Charles Howell III. This will be his 20th year in a row playing this event and he has yet to miss a cut! That is unheard of for the non-Tigers on tour and with 13 top-20s among those 19 cuts, is a totally viable play at 8k flat. This course may seem to minimize Cam Davis’ biggest strength, his driver, yet somehow he’s found a way to finish 31st and 9th in his last 2 tries. January has consistently been his best month from a Strokes Gained: Total perspective and he should be a solid pivot away from the Seamus Power chalk at 8100.

7K

As seen in the charts above, this is the price range that 2/3 of the players came from in the Optimal Lineups. At the top end of the 7k spectrum, Ryan Palmer checks off boxes for both recent form and course history. Ryan is a former winner of the Sony Open, finished 4th two years ago, and finished 26th and 27th with solid ball striking numbers in his last two events of the fall. At 7600, Keith Mitchell is another player who had a solid fall with 2 top-12s in his last 4 events and has finished top 25 in three of the last year trips to the Sony Open. With his ownership projected around 10%, getting overweight shouldn’t be too difficult and give you solid leverage. At 7k flat, KH Lee will be my play he looks to continue his good recent form with three straight top 25s including a solid 18th in his debut at the Tournament of Champions. While KH missed the cut the first 2 times playing the Sony Open, he seemed to figure out how to play the course last year when he gained in all categories in finishing 19th. With more confidence, experience, and good form, a top 10 finish seems like a really reasonable expectation.

6k

As always, the 6k section is always difficult to project since these players are priced here for a reason. While we don’t often find the winner from this section, a player that can get into the top 20 will pay huge dividends in your lineup construction. While no one here should be considered an automatic play, the two safest plays appear at the top of the range. Like Chucky three sticks, Rory Sabbatini has this event 19 times and has only missed the cut 3 times. His two 2nd place finishes happened more than a decade ago but his experience here and 3rd place finish a month ago at the Shriner's Classic will hopefully lead to another solid finish. If I told you a player at 6800 has played made the cut here 7 of 8 times and has 3 top 10s, that should be enough to roster him regardless of his name. Hudson Swafford is the player here and also brings decent recent form in finishing top 35 in 3 of his last 4 events. If you are looking for a player that will carry less than 3% ownership and has finished in the top 15 in the last 2 years at the Sony, Peter Malnatti will find himself in your lineups. While his Tee to Green game won’t blow you away, his putting prowess always gives him a chance. The last guy I’ll throw in there is a young stud from the Korn Forn Tour who played last year and had a terrific 14th place showing for his first time and looks to improve upon that starting this Thursday. Good Luck to everyone and let’s get them green screens!